The idea that the world needs to double its food production by 2050 in order to feed a growing population is wrong, says Isobel Tomlinson from the Soil Association. In this week's Green Room, she says the misuse of data could be used to allow even greater intensification of the global agricultural industry.
 |   It is important that scientific research is now done to show how a better future is possible  |
In the last couple of years, scientists, politicians and agricultural industry representatives around the globe have been using two statistics: the need to increase global food production by 50% by 2030, and for food production to double by 2050 to meet future demand.
These figures have come to play a significant role in framing current international policy debates about the future direction of global agriculture.
These apparently scientific statistics have been dominating the policy and media discourse about food and farming, leading almost everyone to assume we need vast increases in agricultural production to feed a population of nine billion people by the middle of this century.
While ensuring an equitable and sufficient future food supply is of critical importance, many commentators are using this to justify the need for more intensive agricultural practices and, in particular, the need for further expansion of GM crops.
Cooking the books
When the Soil Association, in its report Telling Porkies, looked into the reported sources for these figures, none of the sources actually stated that global food production needs to increase by 50% by 2030, or to double by 2050.
What the reports on which the claims are based do say is that certain sectors, in certain parts of the world, may have to increase food production by significant amounts.
For example, for cereals, there is a projected increase of one billion tonnes annually beyond the two billion tonnes produced in 2005.
For meat, in developing countries only (except China), the reports say that some of the growth potential (for increased per capita meat consumption) will materialise as effective demand, and their per capita consumption could double by 2050.
So this is a projected doubling of meat consumption in some developing countries - not a doubling of global food production.
Indeed, recent calculations show that the key source for the "doubling" claim - a 2006 report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) - implies that global food production for 2006-2050 would need to increase by around 70%, not 100%; a difference that is equivalent to the entire food production of the continent of America.
But while a re-evaluation of the veracity of the claim that food production needs to double by 2050 is to be welcomed, simply switching to the figure of 70% does not solve the problem.
Food for thought
The statistic of a 70% increase is still predicted on the same "business as usual" model as the "doubling" figure and that is problematic for several reasons: Read more...
{ 0 comments... Views All / Send Comment! }
Post a Comment