Swine Flu Could Hit up to 40 Percent in US

US projects swine flu may hit up to 40 percent in 2 years without vaccine, many deaths

By MIKE STOBBE AP Medical Writer
Abc News

In this file photo, a woman wears a face masks to protect herself against the risk of contracting swine flu, as he arrives at Los Angeles International Airport on June 11, 2009.

(Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)

In a disturbing new projection, health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next and several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures.

The estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are roughly twice the number of those who catch flu in a normal season and add greater weight to hurried efforts to get a new vaccine ready for the fall flu season.

Swine flu has already hit the United States harder than any other nation, but it has struck something of a glancing blow that's more surprising than devastating. The virus has killed about 300 Americans and experts believe it has sickened more than 1 million, comparable to a seasonal flu with the weird ability to keep spreading in the summer.

Health officials say flu cases may explode in the fall, when schools open and become germ factories, and the new estimates dramatize the need to have vaccines and other measures in place.

A world health official said the first vaccines are expected in September and October. The United States expects to begin testing on some volunteers in August, with 160 million doses ready in October. Read more...